Labor Day Evaluations and Expectations

Easy stuff first: both New Yorks are in. The Mets woke up on Labor Day with a 16 game lead. No one else in the NL East has demonstrated any ability to mount a winning streak of any consequence. The Phils are a game over .500, and the Fish got even with a win yesterday. Congrats to the NL East Champs.
The Yankees' lead isn't as big, but it's just as secure. The Red Sox are depleted, and the Blue Jays couldn't even take any advantage of that over the weekend. Besides that, the perennial AL East victors just don't lose leads like theirs with a month left. Just doesn't happen. The Yankees are in.
The probables: Oakland has mounted another stunning second-half run, and have run away from the pack in the process. Billy Beane gets mocked routinely for Moneyball, but most years he just laughs all the way to the playoffs. This year should be no different. Oakland wins the West.
A week ago the Cardinals wouldn't have made my probable list. They were stumbling all over the place, and the Reds seemed much more threatening. Funny what a 7-2 homestand and a 2-8 West Coast roadtrip by your pursuers does for the appearance of things. Mulder's been awful and is now out for the season, Edmonds' availability is as up in the air as his performance due to post-concussion syndrome, Molina's been banged up, Pujols missed 20 games and still, "that's a winner" as one tremendous announcer used to say. (If you've seen Joe Buck's Bud ad with the bartender asking who Joe would have a beer with if he could choose anyone, then I suspect you've felt a little welling of the eyes like I have; then if you've seen his Holiday Inn ad, I'm sure you've been as creeped out as I have)
That leaves the AL Central and the NL West. All season it had looked like the Tigers had run away with their division in one of the best stories of the last several seasons. Jim Leyland resurrected the moribund Detroiters, recalling Sparky Anderson's 1984 performance. Now, all that can be said is that the Tigers should still win, but the White Sox did take the World Series last year, and things have returned to form on the South Side. And the wonder that is the Minnesota Twins continues to amaze. Not too long ago they were on the chopping block for contraction. Now they have a list of division wins and wild card contentions under their belts. Still, a 5 game lead on Labor Day, with Detroit's pitching staff, should hold up.
The Dodgers should win the NL West. Nomar's a great story, when healthy. Maddux is a new man out of Chicago, and any baseball fan can understand that. Regardless of the vilification of Paul DePodesta, his regime clearly did some things right in the draft with all of the fantastic young players that have enjoyed at least the proverbial cup of coffee this year. The only issue is that the Padres won't go away. Three games is little to nothing; one bad LA series at the same time as one good SD series, and it's all even. And if you think that can't happen, you haven't been watching the NL West this year.
Wild Cards: It isn't easy for me to ever say anything nice about Der Komissar for Life, but he was right about the Wild Card. Look at the NL. Nine teams are within 7 games. And Milwaukee made it a nice round 10 until this 0-10 they've posted here lately. Teams that have no business being in the playoff still have visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads. Keeps interest, attendance and ratings up. It works every year.
That said, the Padres and Phillies are clearly the top of the also-rans. Were I to engage in such behavior, I'd bet on the Padres. I like Bochy. Hoffman is pitching well, while Flash Gordon is DL'ed. Plus, even when he's healthy, he's still Flash Gordon, which isn't Trevor Hoffman.
I do have to say that I am enjoying the Phillies' story. Trade your best player and a reliable starting pitcher and get better? Who concocted that formula? That, and the spectacular confirmation from Ryan Howard that last year was no fluke makes that Phillies a neat story. I still see the Padres.
The only shame of this season is that one of those three AL Central teams will stay home. At 57 losses, the currently third place Twins would be in first place in the NL Central and NL West, tied for first in the AL West, three behind the Yanks in the AL East, and only 6 behind the best record in baseball Mets. It won't be fair, but either the Chisox or Twins will miss the dance. In a photo finish, I will take the White Sox pitchers to come through and have the kind of September that launched them to the WS Championship last year.
Worst part of September: football has started.
Best part of September: they will play all of these baseball games, and those who will move on have to earn it themselves.
Happy Labor Day!