Hot Stove: Red Sox

Red Sox Nation is clamoring for the return of Mike Lowell. I wrote in my previous post that Mikey's return should be the first item on Theo's To Do List. That said, the brain trust should keep faith with their principle: you don't give multi-year contracts that extend beyond the 35th birthday.
There was anger, heartbreak and gnashing of teeth when Pedro Martinez was allowed to walk after the 2004 victory, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar after the 2005 season, and Trot Nixon after 2006. They were integral parts of the 2004 Championship, and many of us wanted them to stay forever. The truth is that while Pedro went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA for the 2005 Mets, he made only 23 starts for 132.2 IP, a 9-8 record, and a 4.48 ERA at age 34 in 2006, and barely pitched in 2007, posting 5 starts and 28 IP coming off of surgery at age 35. Bill Mueller was in the Dodgers' front office until pressed into service as their hitting coach last year. Damon can hardly play the outfield any more, spending significant time at DH, and dropping off precipitously in his offensive production:
2004: 20 HR, 94 RBI, .304 AVG, .857 OPS
2005: 10 HR, 75 RBI, .316 AVG, .805 OPS
2006: 24 HR, 80 RBI, .285 AVG, .841 OPS
2007: 12 HR, 63 RBI, .270 AVG, .747 OPS
That is, obviously, a dramatic fall. Johnny will turn 34 tomorrow.
Millar is a great guy, but he's hardly a full time player anymore. Trot is a wonderful human being, still a major part of the Jimmy Fund's efforts, but he only started two games in the ALCS for the Indians. At age 33 this year, he only had a half season's at bats, 3 HR and 31 RBI.
This is all to say that whatever the emotion has made the loss of these guys feel like, in business terms letting them go has been the right decision in every instance.
There are two Boston-caliber 3rd basemen available this off-season. Even for the Red Sox, shelling out for Alex Rodriguez would so limit the team in other areas, it just isn't worth it. Combine that with the ample evidence that the man just can't deal with postseason pressure, and he's nowhere near what we want or need at the hot corner.
That leaves the incumbent and World Series MVP, Mike Lowell. The Yankees will certainly bid big and long for their former farm hand. Mike had his career year at age 33 in 2007. He should be very good next year. But do we want the office to abandon a proven approach because we all love Mikey? If it takes a 4, or certainly a 5, year contract to keep him, I just can't see it (and by the way, ARod is only two years younger than Lowell). At that many years, the reasonable and wise approach becomes a shifting of Youkilis back to third and addition of another first baseman. No disrespect intended, but firstsackers are much easier to come by than third basemen.
So, to recap, just as we are better off with Jacoby Ellsbury in center rather than Johnny Damon, with Josh Beckett leading the staff instead of Pedro Martinez, Youk at first instead of Kevin Millar, Mikey Lowell at third instead of Bill Mueller, and even with the predictably disappointing JD Drew in right instead of Trot Nixon, so would we be better off over the next 4 to 5 years with Kevin Youkilis at third instead of a 37 and 38 year old Mike Lowell by the end of such a contract.
I'd hate to see Lowell walk, especially if he's walking into pinstripes. But truth be told, Johnny Damon helped the Red Sox much more this year by wearing a Yankees uniform than he ever could have in a Sox uni. The clock and the calendar march on, and neither of them care a whit about our emotional attachment to these guys who have done so much for Red Sox Nation. The business model can feel harsh, but it has delivered two World Series victories in four seasons after the celebrated 86 years with none to be found. Work the plan! It will keep us in contention.