Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The Rotation is Set

Tito Francona will go to battle with the Rays with his starters in this order:

Game 1, in Tampa or St. Pete or where ever that awful park is: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2, down there, again: Josh Beckett
Game 3, in America's Most Beloved Ballpark: Jon Lester
Game 4, Fenway again: Tim Wakefield

Genius! The man is brilliant.
Daisuke will give you basically the same game, regardless of where he pitches it (9-3, 3.34 at home; 9-0, 2.37 road). He will leave two men on base, minimum, each inning. He will surpass 100 pitches late in the fifth or early in the sixth. I warned The World's Most Generous Friend about what we were in for in Baltimore last August with Dice on the mound. He thought I was joking pregame. About halfway through he turned to me and said, "You weren't kidding at all, were you?" That's Daisuke! He will leave the game with the Sox up a run or two, tied, or down a run. Highly unlikely it will be any more than that in either direction. Perhaps when you are from Japan, everything feels like a road game. Good choice to begin the series.
Josh comes back for the second. He will not be bothered by pitching on the road. In fact, his road ERA was barely half of his home ERA this year (away: 2.85; home: 5.65). He will have a start (Division Series Game 3) under his belt. If he is well, as he says he is, then the rust should be knocked off a bit, and giving him an extra day won't hurt under any circumstances.
Lester in Game 3 is insurance, plain and simple. He has been utterly brilliant at Fenway this year (11-1, 2.49 at Fenway; 5-5, 4.09 away) and any missteps in Games 1 or 2 will be corrected with the best starting pitcher on the staff going in the first home game of the series.
Wake gets the Game 4 start. He earned it this year (7-4, 3.10 at the Fens; 3-7, 5.14 away) and for the last 13 years (Guess who holds third place all time in Red Sox wins? Yep, Wake. With 164 he trails only a couple of guys named Cy Young and Roger Clemens, tied with 192). I like Wake's knuckleball after Beckett and Lester throw hard for a couple of games. Tim went 10-11 this year, but when you look at his ERA (4.13), as the game has changed, he deserved better. He has been effective throughout his career against Tampa, and will be again.
Projecting out through the whole series, if it goes long, Lester will be positioned to pitch a Game 7, which would be outstanding-probably more exciting than I need!
Tito doesn't miss much, and he surely did not miss a foreseeable trick lining up his staff for another ALCS.

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